Donald Trump makes no immigration pivot in Phoenix speech – campaign live

6.54pm BST

Here’s some analysis to go with that inert pile of numbers we threw at you a couple blocks ago.

Has the presidential race tightened? FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver thinks so:

The race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump has tightened. Clinton, whose lead over Trump exceeded 8 percentage points at her peak following the Democratic convention, is ahead by 4 or 5 percentage points today, according to our polls-only forecast.

The tighter margins in the polls, which reflect a loss of support for Clinton along with a modest improvement for Trump, have come gradually over the past few weeks. […]

But what if the race continues to tighten? I’ve often heard Democrats express a belief that Clinton’s position in the swing states will protect her in the Electoral College even if the race draws to a dead heat overall. But this is potentially mistaken. Although it’s plausible that Clinton’s superior field operation will eventually pay dividends, so far her swing state results have ebbed and flowed with her national numbers.

6.43pm BST

Bernie Sanders will hit the campaign trail in New Hampshire on Labor Day for Clinton, according to a highly reliable local:

BREAKING: @BernieSanders to campaign for @HillaryClinton at Lebanon High School on Labor Day afternoon #nhpolitics #WMUR

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