- Eurozone inflation weaker than expected at 0.2%
- US job creation slows in August
- German retail sales jump in July
- Pound rises against dollar and euro
- UK house prices rise 0.6% in August
- Eurozone unemployment steady at 10.1%
Back with the US jobs data, and economist James Smith at ING Bank says the ADP figures may not be much of a guide to Friday’s non-farm payroll numbers:
The latest ADP payrolls estimate came in a touch above consensus at 177,000. The key thing to know about ADP’s model is that is predominantly a function of last month’s official employment data, which means that ADP’s own up-to-date payrolls data plays only a minor role in generating the estimate. This means that the directional accuracy of ADP as a lead indicator of non-farm payrolls (ie higher or lower growth than last month) is around 50%. We are therefore none-the-wiser ahead of Friday’s number, even if at face value, it supports the consensus call of 180,000.
We expect job creation to fall short of expectations (ING forecast 150,000), following two months of remarkably strong non-farm payrolls. But… the FOMC would probably be content with such a figure, even if markets may view it as slightly disappointing. As the pool of available labour evaporates, job creation need only keep pace with increases in the overall size of the labour force. Some FOMC speakers have said that they would be comfortable with sub-150,000 non-farm payroll numbers, most notably Vice Chair Fischer who has indicated that 75-150 thousand would be acceptable.
US markets are down in early trading: